Driven by sorrow, I spent the weekend reflecting on the recent humanitarian tragedy caused by the storms and flooding. Indeed, our climate, with its tendency to “not know how to rain,” has historically subjected us to cycles of floods and droughts, often without respite.
What I intended to write versus what I ultimately wrote
Just a week ago, I had planned to write an article on the severe drought impacting our forest areas—a crisis we cannot overlook. I felt compelled to do this because it is essential to analyze the grave condition of our forests with data in hand, from a rigorous technical and scientific perspective, and on an appropriate scale, to move beyond certain everyday discourses that, at times, unabashedly disregard science. Throughout the summer, we have addressed numerous inquiries regarding forest drought, and it now seems an opportune moment to share my perspective thoughtfully and independently, free from the urgency of immediate responses.
Who could have predicted that after such prolonged drought, we would experience rainfall of this magnitude? And now, unfortunately, I find myself compelled to write about the devastating calamity caused by the floods. And the circumstances demand it. This devastating episode of rainfall has become, for now, the second deadliest natural disaster in Spain on record, surpassed only by the 1962 floods in Vallés Occidental, although the death toll continues to rise.
First and foremost, I would like to express my heartfelt condolences to the families of the victims and extend my solidarity to those who have lost everything, or nearly everything.
That being said, I would like to reflect on the events as an urgent lesson learned, with the aim of drawing clear and actionable conclusions. I would like to approach this reflection at the appropriate scale, as we consider the future. o achieve this, we must critically examine the territory and the strategic development model we are currently following and continuing to pursue, as well as how we address environmental risks—issues that are closely linked to forestry challenges and their associated dangers.
From this perspective, I will focus on analyzing the events in the area where the damage has been greatest, namely the Huerta Sur, and I apologize in advance to the other regions (both in the Turia river basin and the Magro-Júcar), which I have already included in my condolences. In any event, I believe that much of what I write can be directly applied to other situations.
To analyze the issue systematically, I will conduct a risk assessment to explore the reasons behind this event and why it could occur again, with the goal of helping to prevent its recurrence. In emergency situations, understanding the concept of risk is fundamental. How to manage it—before, during, and after the emergency—is crucial for minimizing damage. By analyzing it, we will be able to answer many of the questions we are currently facing.
t is essential to understand that the risk of any emergency impacting the population and its assets is determined by three key factors: the danger (the destructive potential of the agent causing it, based on its cyclical probability of occurrence or return period), exposure (the number of people and assets at risk), and vulnerability (the degree of susceptibility to the emergency).
The severity of an emergency is determined by the interaction of these three parameters.
Reactions and recommendations
Thus, it appears that in this event, the alignment of danger, exposure, and vulnerability converged, leading to the devastating tragedy. Additionally, other factors have exacerbated vulnerability, such as the fact that the emergency occurred during rush hour, when people were returning home from work. However, I do not wish to dwell further on this point, as I risk focusing solely on analyzing the causes of this tragedy.
While the immediate priority is to assist those affected, we must also focus on the long term and propose comprehensive measures to prevent this from happening again. We must avoid the repeated mistake of allowing urgent, short-term decisions to completely overshadow important, long-term issues that require a strategic vision. To address a problem of this magnitude, one-time actions are insufficient, as the scale of the issue is far too vast.
What I am about to say applies to all flood-prone areas across the region. In emergencies, there is a fundamental principle that risk can never be completely eliminated. But the harms can be minimized. Therefore, we cannot eliminate a widespread geological event with ordinary measures (though I will discuss extraordinary measures later), as it is a force far beyond our control. However, it is possible to raise awareness of the risk and implement precautionary measures to mitigate it or, at the very least, prevent it from worsening (this is known as adaptation) before it occurs. And adhere to the established action protocols when it occurs.
In conclusion
The 1957 Valencia flood led to the highly expensive (on all fronts) “final solution” of the South Plan (Plan Sur). Now, with many more lives lost, we likely cannot afford to take such an approach again, especially since it would need to be implemented in numerous other areas across the country. However, we must accept the cost of doing everything within our power to prevent another humanitarian catastrophe.
Unless we are able (which seems unlikely) to control the rain, we can expect these climatic events to persist, and likely with even greater intensity. Perhaps what has occurred is the chronicle of a disaster foretold, as all the risk factors were in place, with only the opportunity lacking.
But we must take away a key lesson: the most significant difference between this calamity and previous ones is the development model we are pursuing. An unjust model that discriminates against regions, is unsustainable, and, as we now see, also reckless. We should conduct a thorough and honest review, working toward greater territorial equity, regardless of the cost.
Full article in Valenciano on the UPV Innovation website: innovacion.upv.es/es/al-meu-pais-la-pluja
Professor at Campus Gandia (UPV)
President of the Valencian Forestry Platform