Driven by sorrow, I spent the weekend reflecting on the recent humanitarian tragedy caused by the storms and flooding. Indeed, our climate, with its tendency to \u201cnot know how to rain,\u201d has historically subjected us to cycles of floods and droughts, often without respite.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n
What I intended to write versus what I ultimately wrote<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n Just a week ago, I had planned to write an article on the severe drought impacting our forest areas\u2014a crisis we cannot overlook. I felt compelled to do this because it is essential to analyze the grave condition of our forests with data in hand, from a rigorous technical and scientific perspective, and on an appropriate scale, to move beyond certain everyday discourses that, at times, unabashedly disregard science. Throughout the summer, we have addressed numerous inquiries regarding forest drought, and it now seems an opportune moment to share my perspective thoughtfully and independently, free from the urgency of immediate responses.<\/p>\r\n Who could have predicted that after such prolonged drought, we would experience rainfall of this magnitude? And now, unfortunately, I find myself compelled to write about the devastating calamity caused by the floods. And the circumstances demand it. This devastating episode of rainfall has become, for now, the second deadliest natural disaster in Spain on record, surpassed only by the 1962 floods in Vall\u00e9s Occidental, although the death toll continues to rise.<\/p>\r\n First and foremost, I would like to express my heartfelt condolences to the families of the victims and extend my solidarity to those who have lost everything, or nearly everything.<\/p>\r\n That being said, I would like to reflect on the events as an urgent lesson learned, with the aim of drawing clear and actionable conclusions. I would like to approach this reflection at the appropriate scale, as we consider the future. o achieve this, we must critically examine the territory and the strategic development model we are currently following and continuing to pursue, as well as how we address environmental risks\u2014issues that are closely linked to forestry challenges and their associated dangers.<\/p>\r\n From this perspective, I will focus on analyzing the events in the area where the damage has been greatest, namely the Huerta Sur, and I apologize in advance to the other regions (both in the Turia river basin and the Magro-J\u00facar), which I have already included in my condolences. In any event, I believe that much of what I write can be directly applied to other situations.<\/p>\r\n To analyze the issue systematically, I will conduct a risk assessment to explore the reasons behind this event and why it could occur again, with the goal of helping to prevent its recurrence. In emergency situations, understanding the concept of risk is fundamental. How to manage it\u2014before, during, and after the emergency\u2014is crucial for minimizing damage. By analyzing it, we will be able to answer many of the questions we are currently facing.<\/p>\r\n t is essential to understand that the risk <\/strong>of any emergency impacting the population and its assets is determined by three key factors: the danger <\/strong>(the destructive potential of the agent causing it, based on its cyclical probability of occurrence or return period), exposure <\/strong>(the number of people and assets at risk), and vulnerability <\/strong>(the degree of susceptibility to the emergency).<\/p>\r\n The severity of an emergency is determined by the interaction of these three parameters.<\/p>\r\n